Basic BlackJack Strategy
Blackjack is more than a guessing game, contrary to what some gamblers might think. The majority of blackjack games are guessing games. However, with every blackjack hand there is a correct strategy as well as an ineffective strategy. The fundamental strategy is the most effective. A mathematically optimized strategy is the most effective strategy. It maximizes your chances of winning while also reducing your losses over the course of time.
Other card games such as poker do not have a fundamental strategy. For instance, there's no fundamental strategy for poker. Poker players use their hands based on whether or not he thinks his opponent is actually holding a strong hand or may be lying, and if the player himself has an impressive hand or might decide to attempt to bluff.
There is no standard method for playing any card game, as long that your opponent is able to decide how to play his hand. For a long time there was no standard blackjack strategy as it wasn't a gambling game that required the dealer to reveal a card and then play according to the house rules. Instead, it was more of a poker-style game where both dealers' cards were concealed, and the dealer could play his hand however he wanted, and players were able to bluff the dealer with their own strategies.
When the American casinos modified the rules of the twenty-one to expose one of the dealer's cards , and oblige the dealer to stick to a strict stand/hit strategy, an important thing occurred. The game was transformed from a traditional poker game that was based more on psychology , to one that was strictly mathematical.
The Fundamental Strategy That Work... The "Odds" and the reason why Basic Strategy is Effective
In our case we'll begin with the assumption that our dealers are playing an honest game. No sleight-of-hand, no chicanery. We're not likely to forget the First Rule of Professional Gamblers, but we're going to briefly ignore it until we can comprehend the logic behind the game, and reveal the basic strategy that will kill most of the edge that casinos have mathematically. It's true that the majority of the games that you can find in casinos these days are dealt honestly, and if you bump into games that aren't on the same level, you're not going to even try to beat it.
Computers were used by mathematicians to analyse every single hand and dealer upcard to figure out the most fundamental strategy for playing the dealt game. One thing that likely shocked some of the first mathematicians who conducted these computer analyses was the fact that the basic strategy that was nearly perfect was already figured out and published by four GIs with desk jobs and plenty of free time during the 1950s. Even though they didn't have computers they spent three years using mechanical add machines to calculate all possible outcomes. This was the highest Uncle Sam could ever have gotten from the four GIs' pay!
It is also known that fairly accurate equivalences of the basic strategy had been figured out by a variety of professional gamblers in the Nevada decades before computers appeared into the picture. They came up with the method by playing hands with their tables in the kitchen. Many thousands, tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands of hands were required to make certain choices. Like most professional gamblers, these gamblers never released their strategies. Blackjack was their main source of income and they'd spent countless hours studying the subject. They wouldn't tell anyone about what they learned.
There is one thing that is certain that casinos did not know the right strategy to play the game. This was also true for those who had read some of the best books on the subject. Many of the old Hoyle's guidelines advised players to bet on sums of 15 or16, no matter what the dealer's card was or the dealer's upcard. They also advised players to split tens, not split nines and to stand on soft 17. The "smart" players at the time, which was players who had read any of these gambling books by some of these respected authorities, typically made all kinds of plays that we know today are extremely expensive.
A lot of people aren't aware of the basic logic behind strategy. Let me offer an example. Blackjack strategy says to hit when my hand is 14 and the dealer shows me a 10 upcard. This is the mathematically correct way to play. Sometimes you'll be lucky enough to hit the 14, and then draw an 8, 9,, or 10, to stop. Then the dealer will turn over his hole card, a 6, and you will find that if have stood on your 14, the dealer would have to reach his total of 16, and he would have busted with that 10. You have lost a hand playing the mathematically correct play.
Certain players will assert that there really isn't a basic strategy that's always right. Blackjack is, as per them it's a game of playing guesswork.
In order to understand the basic strategies, you must think as a professional player, and that means you have be aware of "the blackjack odds."
Let me use another example to demonstrate the mathematics behind probability and statistics, the logic behind basic strategies. Let's say I have a jar containing one hundred marbles. 50 of the marbles are black while fifty are white. In a blindfold, reach out and pick one marble. However, before you do this, place a bet of $1 on the marble you choose will be black or white. If you find the color you guessed and win, you will be awarded $ 1 If not, you lose $ 1.
Do you think this is a game of guessing?
Absolutely. How can you be sure which color marble you're going to pull out in advance? If you win, it's luck. If you lose, it's bad luck.
What if you found out that 90 percent of the marbles listed in the list are black, and 10% are white? Do you prefer to bet on white or black before you draw? Anyone who is smart would bet on black. It is possible, of course, to get the white marble, however, it is much more unlikely to get a white marble than one of black. It's a guessing game , and you could still lose $1 when a white marble is taken out. But if you're betting on black, the odds favor the black marble.
Professional gamblers earn their living by considering "the odds" and only bet when the odds are in his favor. This bet would see the gambler bet on black since the odds of winning are 9 to 1. If you choose to bet on white, odds are 9 to 1 against you.
If you go back to the total of 14 when the dealer showed a 10 upcard, you could lose if you take a chance, but the chances are not in your favor if you take a stand.
It's possible to win a few hands if you play your intuitions but you'll also lose than you win in the final. The mathematics is the only method to make an informed decision about any play. The decision to stand or hit or double down, or split a pair is dependent on the rules of probability tell you what your expected outcome to be for each of these possibilities.